CMS Projects Health Care Spending to Increase Over Next 10 Years, Outpacing Overall Spending6/19/2024 Between now and 2032, the average annual growth in health care spending will outpace overall spending, resulting in an increase in the health spending share of GDP from 17.3% in 2022 to 19.7% in 2032, according to an annual report released last week by the CMS Office of the Actuary. Personal health care price inflation and growth in the use of health care services and goods contribute to projected health spending that grows at a faster rate (5.6%) than the rest of the economy (4.1%). For Medicaid, in particular, the average rate of growth for Medicaid spending is projected to be 5.2% between 2023 and 2032. State eligibility redeterminations resumed in 2023 following the expiration of the Families First Coronavirus Response Act’s continuous enrollment provisions, and many individuals were disenrolled in 2023 (and more in 2024) as a result. After 2024, Medicaid enrollment is expected to stabilize as eligibility processes return to normal.
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